Topic outline

  • Survey Paper

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    • The authors provided an overview of scenario planning using multiple methods to evaluate different approaches.


  • About

    • The survey is focused on methods capable of supporting scenario planning. Since the present era is characterized by uncertainty, innovation and change, increasing emphasis is being placed on the use of scenario planning techniques because of its usefulness in times of uncertainty and complexity [1]. On the one hand, scenario planning stimulates strategic thinking and helps to overcome thinking limitations by creating multiple futures. In line with this, authors presented a literature review on scenario planning highlighting various methods including the Fuzzy Cognitive Map (FCM). Authors realized that scenarios development may follow multiple archetypes, such as: a) continued growth (is assumed that the enhancement of current trends), b) collapse (is assumed  growth fails and disruptions), c) steady (future seeks to arrest growth), and d) transformation (this future tries to change the basic assumption of the other three). 

      In addition, authors highlighted the following metrics for the scenario validation: a) plausibility (scenarios have to be capable of happening), b) consistency (the combination of logics in a scenario has to ensure that there is no built-in internal inconsistency and contradiction), c) utility (scenario should contribute specific insights into the future that help to make the decision), d) challenge or novelty (scenarios should challenge the organization’s conventional wisdom about the future), and e) differentiation (they should be structurally different and not simple variations on the same theme).


  • Impact

    • The authors noted that for a scenario project, it is appropriate to develop 3 to 5 future scenarios. They emphasized that internal consistency and plausibility are critical aspects in validating scenarios. To ensure internal consistency of raw scenarios, a consistency matrix can be used, while plausibility can be assessed through morphological analysis. Consistency and plausibility are crucial conditions for evaluating the credibility of scenarios. These findings could be valuable for researchers and practitioners interested in scenario planning.


  • Resources

    • [1] M. Amer, T. Daim, A. Jetter, “A review of scenario planning,” in Futures, vol 46, pp 23-40, 2013, doi: 10.1016/j.futures.2012.10.003.