Topic outline

  • THE FUTURE OF WORK-CREALAB

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    • In 2013, the interdisciplinary Future Laboratory Crealab at Lucerne University of Applied Science and Arts wanted to understand more about what was predicted about the future of work, this was a major topic of inquiry, through the analysis of German science fiction novels exploring the topic.


  • About

    • The project developed by the interdisciplinary group aimed at creating possible future scenarios about the forms of work, forms of collaboration, forms of organisation and economy in general. The team decided to analyse (at that time) recent Science Fiction novels as they assumed that current science fiction literature can be used to produce statements about the future – at least, that had been true for the Science Fiction literature from the 1970s that predicted many of the technological innovations that were part of everyday life in the 2010s.


       


      From a literature search, the team selected 51 German science fiction books published between 2010 and 2013 that describe the possible future of work. We used the methodology of qualitative content analysis and  developed codes in an inductive process in iterative cycles according to Miles et al. (2014) and Saldaña (2016). In the first cycle, we identified the passages in the book that described future work environments. These were then isolated and the resulting body of text was openly coded to understand what types of possible future scenarios were imagined. Open coding is a means to thematically classify text derived from literature searches (Onwuegbuzie et al., 2016: 137). In the second coding cycle, the first level codes were grouped into pattern codes (ibid: 138) according to similarities. In a third coding cycle, these were mapped into a network to identify network relations embedded in the data (Saldaña, 2016).


      Most of the identified  futures described in the novels included descriptions of societies, population groups and planets rather than organisations. Work in these imaginable futures happens in a self-organised way and independent of organisations. This spurred the assumption that organisations might lose their importance as organisers of collective work.


  • Impact

    • The study produced a few possible scenarios, or clusters of ideas, that could be used as inspiration by companies or public organisations to innovate their forms of work, improve the quality of work and life, or reorganise the use of resources (especially if scarce). Some possible future scenarios are described below.


      ●        The study suggests that work will become easier because of the use of and sometimes the complete replacement of human tasks by robots. This would also imply less work for humans, who could progressively work less when getting older.


      ●        Learning might become much easier or even immediate. This could include not only notions, skills and competences but also learning about others’ real thoughts and feelings. This might translate into fewer information asymmetries and different forms of collaboration.


      ●        People would avoid not only dangerous or wearing work, but also the tedious one. In some scenarios, administrative work by humans is replaced by artificial intelligence. This would allow people to dedicate their time to more artistic practices.


      ●        Because of scientific research and improvements, people could solve more of their flaws and there would be less social pressure to act or be in a specific way. Everyone would be free to be whomever they want to be.


      ●        In other scenarios, people become extremely dependent on technology and all their communication occurs through some technological device.


      ●        A potential game-changer could be the “infinite mobility”: people/ workers would be able to travel extremely long distances in a matter of seconds and again that could have a huge impact on the future of work and for economies in general.


  • ,Resources

    • ●        Project website (German language): https://www.hslu.ch/en/lucerne-university-of-applied-sciences-and-arts/research/projects/detail/?pid=481

      ●        Klotz, U., Wolf, P., Kummler, B., & Doerk, M. (2018). Wie sieht denn nun die Zukunft der Arbeit aus? Aktivitäten des interdisziplinären Zukunftslabors CreaLab im Rahmen des Schwerpunkthemas «Zukunft der Arbeit». Anwendungen und Konzepte der Wirtschaftsinformatik, (8), 5-5.

      ●        Klotz, U., Dievernich, F. & Wolf, P. (2015). Die Zukunft der Arbeit in der Vergangenheit des Science Fiction. Final project report. Future Laboratory CreaLab, Lucerne University of Applied Sciences and Arts: Lucerne.

       

      Additional resources on the method

      ●        Clarke, I. F. (1991). Factor three: science and fiction. Futures, 23(6), 637-645.

      ●        Miles, M.B., Huberman, A.M., & Saldana, J. (2014). Qualitative data analysis. A methods sourcebook (3rd ed.). Sage.

      ●        Onwuegbuzie, A. J., Frels, R. K., and Hwang, E. (2016). Mapping Saldana's coding methods onto the literature review process. Journal of Educational Issues, 2(1),130-150.

      ●        Schwarz, J. O. (2015). The ‘Narrative Turn’in developing foresight: Assessing how cultural products can assist organisations in detecting trends. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 90, 510-513.

      ●        Saldaña (2016). The coding manual for qualitative researchers (3rd ed.). Sage.