Course: Trend extrapolation / Prediction of China’s Population Mortality under Limited Data

● China has a serious lack of data on population mortality, showing an absence of population data over 90 years old, which leads to large fluctuations in the curvature of the tail.

Population health is an issue with China’s aging population, which can directly reflect the population’s quality of life. To measure the overall health status of a country’s population, mortality is a vital indicator. Predicting mortality is essential in monitoring expected issues in China’s aging population. China has a lack of data on population mortality, especially the elderly population. China’s demographic yearbook and its demographic and employment statistical yearbook from 1998 to 2020 show an absence of population data over 90 years of age, which leads to large fluctuations in the curvature of the tail.

Population mortality projections usually use two methods: one to calculate population life expectancy by projecting sub-age mortality and the other to calculate sub-age mortality from life tables by projecting population life expectancy. To predict the future mortality, the time series method can be used to simulate the time effect and the value of the predicted year. This can be obtained by trend extrapolation to then predict the future mortality (Cheng et al., 2022).

The Kannisto model was applied to supplement the missing data and extend the data of the senior population to 100 years making the prediction of life expectancy more accurate and then uses the Lee-Carter single-factor model to predict the species mortality of the Chinese population through age extrapolation and trend extrapolation.

Findings from applying Trend Extrapolation show that with the continuous development of society and the continuous improvement of the level of science and technology and medical treatment, the death rate has improved significantly from 1997 to 2019. Comparing mortality rates in 2019, 2025 and 2030 shows that the mortality rate in all regions of China is continuously improving and the life expectancy is continuously extending. Although female mortality greatly fluctuates when comparing the changes in male and female mortality, findings show a longevity risk in China.

The methods used improve the accuracy of population mortality prediction by filling the gap in the original data. It also predicts the life expectancy of the Chinese population, and the results provide a theoretical basis for policies to address the risk of longevity.

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